Li Yun has a strong revenge in his heart. He is a real villain. If anyone provokes him, he will wait for endless revenge!
At the beginning, I was not strong enough. I believe that as my cultivation level increases, I will be fine to summon some good players and destroy a small Black Tiger Gang.
Zhao Yaru was completely unaware of what happened that night. She just felt that Li Yun let herself fly to the sky three times, and then fell deeply in the ocean of desire. She didn't know that a shocking bloody incident occurred ten meters away from her. It was not until Chang Kun went to work in their company with a pseudonym Xiao Kun. Li Yun found time to give her a brief introduction. After all, she had not seen the bloody scene at that time, and the woman was not afraid of anything. She just repeatedly told them to be careful.
It was soon Monday, and their plan to enter the Japanese stock market officially began to be implemented. After the money-making action in the Hong Kong stock market some time ago, although Li Yun spent a lot of money to buy medicinal materials, antiques, luxury cars, and villas, he still had 200 million yuan in the stock market at that time. Although he did not do it specifically for the time, all the long orders he bought at that time have now risen by more than 600 points, and 200 million yuan has become more than one billion yuan. So with the original funds in his hands, there are still 2 billion Hong Kong dollars to use.
Several traders and investment manager Wei Dongming called for a meeting in the conference room, and the rest collected and sorted out the information needed by the company, whether it was from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, or even from the United States and Britain. Anyone who found it useful would collect and sort it out. Li Yun expressed his intention to enter the Japanese stock market to several main characters in the conference room, and used various analysis to demonstrate his views on entering the Japanese stock market.
In front of the spacious conference room, Li Yun slowly said in his tempting voice that Japan's financial liberalization began in the mid-1970s, but the speed was very slow
Under pressure from the United States, by 1980, the reform of financial liberalization began to accelerate. In December 1980, the Japanese government revised the Foreign Exchange Act. The old Foreign Exchange Act was formulated in the 1950s when Japan's international payments supported the continued deficit. It implemented a quota system for foreign exchange, and the government implemented very strict controls on the use of foreign exchange.
The revised new Foreign Exchange Law allows Japanese residents to liberalize foreign currency deposits and liberalize foreign currency loans, and in principle allows free foreign exchange transactions.
The revised Foreign Exchange Act allows Japanese funds to invest overseas legally
However, the United States believes that the pace of reform of Japan's financial liberalization and internationalization is too slow. In order to accelerate the internationalization of Japan's financial, President Reagan personally took action in the fall of 1983 and brought a group of financial experts to Japan, urging the Japanese government to step up the reform of financial liberalization and internationalization.
At that time, Japanese Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone and President Reagan had a very good personal relationship. He boasted to the public many times that he and Reagan were close friends who called each other, Luo and Kang.
The Japanese government attaches great importance to the US financial reform proposal and has specially established a Japanese-US yen and US dollar committee as the agency for negotiations between the Japanese Tripitaka Province and the US Treasury Department.
After many consultations and discussions, the two sides quickly made substantial progress.
In 1984, the Japanese Province of Tripitaka published the report "The Current Situation and Prospects on Financial Liberalization and the Internationalization of the Japanese Yen", which proposed to relax or abolish business restrictions on financial institutions such as banks, insurance companies and securities companies, allow free exchange of the Japanese Yen, allow enterprises and investors to conduct free foreign exchange futures trading, allow foreign banks to enter Japan, implement the internationalization strategy of the Japanese Yen, etc.
The speed of the release of the report was so fast that it was beyond the expectations of many Japanese experts. Judging from past experience, many of the contents and measures of the report were difficult to issue without extensive discussion and review for two or three years.
Moreover, the recommendations and measures of the report were implemented quickly and were accepted very smoothly by relevant parties in the financial community and market.
As Japan has rapidly implemented reforms to financial liberalization and internationalization since 1980, Japanese institutional and individual investors with large amounts of funds have the opportunity to invest in the US securities market
In September 1985, US Treasury Secretary James Baker, Japanese Treasury Secretary Tomoto Takeshita, former German Treasury Secretary Gerhard Stltenberg, French Treasury Secretary Pierre Beregvy, British Treasury Secretary Nigel Lawsn Xue and other five developed industrial countries, including Treasury Secretary Nigel Lawsn, and five central banks of five countries held a meeting at the Plaza Htel New York City to reach a joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, so that the US dollar will be lowered in an orderly manner against major currencies to resolve the huge US trade deficit.
This is the famous PlazaAccrd. After the signing of the PlazaAccrd, the five countries jointly intervened in the foreign exchange market. The countries began to sell the US dollar, which then formed a selling frenzy among market investors, resulting in a significant depreciation of the US dollar.
In September 1985, the US dollar fluctuated around 1 US dollar to 250 yen. After the agreement was signed, it quickly fell to around 200 yen in less than 3 months, a drop of 20%.
It is said that at the square meeting, then Japanese Treasury Secretary Takeshita said that Japan was willing to assist the United States in using market intervention to lower the dollar exchange rate, and even said: Depreciation by 20% OK After that, the US government authorities led by US Treasury Secretary Baker and experts represented by Ephrid Bergsten (the director of the American Institute of International Economics at the time) continued to intervene verbally in the dollar, saying that the exchange rate level of the US dollar was still relatively high at that time and there was room for decline.
The dollar continues to fall sharply against the yen under the hint of the tough attitude of the US government
At the end of 1986, 1 US dollar against 152 yen, and in 1987, the lowest reached 1 US dollar against 120 yen. In less than three years, the US dollar depreciated by 50%, which means that the yen appreciated twice against the US dollar.
Since 1980, Japan's foreign capital investment has increased sharply. According to statistics from the Bank of Japan, in 1980, Japan's long-term foreign direct investment amounted to US$19.6 billion and long-term foreign securities investment amounted to US$21.4 billion in 1980.
By 1985, Japan's long-term foreign direct investment amounted to US$44 billion, an increase of 12,449% compared with 1980; the investment in foreign long-term securities soared to US$145.7 billion, an increase of 58,084% compared with 1980.
In 1985, Japan's total foreign net assets were US$129.8 billion, an increase of 102,870% from US$11.5 billion in 1980.
These data show that since 1980, Japan has indeed made a lot of money through foreign trade, but most of the money it earned has been invested overseas and mainly invested in the securities market
Among them, long-term foreign securities investment is mainly concentrated in the United States, and long-term government bonds.
During 1981, 1985, Japan's current income and expenditure surplus was approximately US$120 billion, with most of the trade surplus coming from the United States.
But at the same time, Japanese companies have used most of this money to purchase US Treasury bonds during this period
By 1985, Japan had replaced the United States as the world's largest creditor country. Japan had huge assets in the United States, which were mainly held in the form of US dollars and most of them were used to purchase US Treasury bonds. Japan was the largest creditor of the United States.
After the Plaza Agreement in 1985, with the sharp depreciation of the US dollar and the sharp appreciation of the yen, the US dollar assets held by Japan depreciated significantly.
During this period of September 1985, at the end of 1987, the US dollar fell from 1 dollar to 250 yen to 1 dollar against 121 yen, and the US dollar depreciated by 50% against yen.
This means that the US dollar assets held by the Japanese depreciated by 50%
According to statistics from Japanese institutions, during 1986 and 1990, the cumulative exchange rate loss of Japanese foreign net assets caused by the Plaza Agreement was about 15 trillion yen
Many Japanese institutional and individual investors, including Japanese life insurance companies, have suffered heavy losses. Japanese export companies have also invested the US dollar they earned in exports in U.S. Treasury bonds in the era of appreciation of the US dollar. They also suffered huge losses.
Therefore, when many Japanese people reflected on this historical period, they believed that the plunge in the US dollar was due to the huge amount of dollars accumulated by Japan.
After the Plaza Agreement in 1985, the sharp depreciation of the US dollar caused huge exchange losses in US dollar assets held by Japanese institutional investors, which made the United States feel a sense of crisis.
If Japanese investors' confidence shakes and sell US Treasury bonds on a large scale to reduce losses, this will cause a chain reaction in the US financial market.
First, it caused the US Treasury market to collapse, which led to turmoil in the US stock market. International capital will also withdraw from the US to avoid risks.
Without the continuous flow of overseas capital into the United States, the balance of payments in the United States is difficult to maintain.
Due to the sharp decline in the Treasury bond market, it is difficult for the U.S. Treasury bonds to be issued, and the fiscal deficit problem cannot be solved
In order to allow international capital to continue to flow into the United States, US Treasury Secretary Baker proposed international policy coordination recommendations, which require the maintenance of the interest rate spread between the United States, Japan and the Federal Republic of Germany, so that the interest rate in the United States is always higher than that in Japan and Germany.
If the United States lowers interest rates, Japan and Germany must also lower interest rates, because only in this way can the interest rate difference between the three countries remain unchanged
The relatively high interest rate in the United States makes U.S. Treasury bonds still have investment value
Judging from the situation in the United States at that time, the risk of investing in the United States was very high, such as the huge deficit of current account for many years, the increase in external net debt, the depreciation of the US dollar, etc. Investors simply couldn't find a reason to invest in the United States.
Therefore, maintaining relatively high levels of US interest rates through international policy coordination is the main way for the United States to attract overseas capital inflows
In the following years of 1985, Japan, in accordance with the requirements of the United States' international coordination, kept the long-term interest rate gap between the United States and Japan at all times above 3%, which led to a large difference in the yields of the U.S. and Japan. Compared with the yields of Japanese government bonds, the high yields of the U.S. long-term government bonds strongly attracted Japanese investors
In February 1986, the United States decided to lower the official interest rate for two purposes: one is to reduce the debts of the huge debtor countries in South America, which are closely related to the United States, and the other is to stimulate the recession of the economy.
Before the interest rate cut, Fed Chairman Volker first negotiated with Japan and the Federal Republic of Germany, hoping that Deutsche Federal Bank and Japan Bank would cut interest rates at the same time
Volker's reason is simple: the three countries can maintain the stability of the US dollar at the same time
Because the United States cuts interest rates and Japan and the Federal Republic of Germany maintain interest rates unchanged will lead to a depreciation of the US dollar, which will damage the interests of these two countries in the United States.
Since Japan has huge US dollar assets and is most afraid of the depreciation of the US dollar, Japan always faithfully follows the requirements of the United States. Japan's official interest rates are like the shadow of US interest rates. The United States cuts interest rates, and Japan also cuts interest rates.
The United States uses high interest rates and strong dollar strategies to lure Japanese capital to invest in US Treasury bonds on a large scale, thus allowing Japan to own high dollar assets
After completing this step, the interests of the United States are Japan's interests, and Japan is forced to take the initiative to defend the US dollar.
Logically speaking, the task of supporting the US dollar is the American business, but since Japan already has huge US dollar assets, stabilizing the US dollar value is to protect the US dollar assets owned by Japan.
After a pause and drinking, Li Yun continued, we can analyze Japan's dilemma in this way: Japan is a super buyer of the US Treasury bond market. If Japan sells US Treasury bonds, it will cause a panic decline in the Treasury bond market. The decline in Treasury bond prices will lead to an increase in losses in Japan's Treasury bond holdings.
This is the first loss
Japan's selling of government bonds will also cause the US dollar to depreciate
Because investors in the foreign exchange market expect that after Japan sells its treasury bonds, it will convert the US dollar into yen, which will increase the selling pressure of the US dollar and cause the US dollar to fall.
The dollar depreciation is the second loss that Japan needs to foresee
Therefore, from the perspective of game analysis, if Japan sells US Treasury bonds on a large scale, both the United States and Japan will suffer huge losses. If the United States and Japan cooperate and coordinate, both sides will benefit.
Therefore, only by helping the United States stabilize the US dollar can Japan avoid losses
In a word, the United States has controlled Japan in finance. In addition to Japanese investors having huge amounts of US dollar assets, the Japanese government also has huge US dollar assets.
After the Plaza Agreement in 1985, in the face of the continued sharp appreciation of the yen, the Japanese government often interfered in the foreign exchange market, and prevented the appreciation of the yen by buying US dollars and selling the yen.
As a result, the Japanese government has more and more foreign exchange reserves, becoming the world's largest foreign exchange reserve country
According to the Japanese Central Bank itself, 90% of Japan's foreign exchange reserves operate in US dollars, mainly buying US Treasury bonds
Therefore, Japan must support the US dollar and continue to buy US Treasury bonds to support the US dollar
After the Plaza Agreement, Japanese institutional investors continued to buy US Treasury bonds on a large scale
From 1986 to 1989, Japan purchased US Treasury bonds in more than 1985
From the perspective of pure investment, this investment behavior of Japanese institutional investors is incomprehensible.
Due to the sharp depreciation of the US dollar, Japanese institutional investors have suffered heavy losses. Why do Japanese people still purchase large quantities of US Treasury bonds?
Peter Drucker, a famous American economist, was also puzzled by this phenomenon. He wrote in his book "New Reality" that the flow of capital and investment after the US dollar to the Japanese yen was unexpected in the fall of 1985. Although the main creditors of the United States continued to invest their funds in the United States despite seeing that the value of their huge dollar assets had been reduced by half.
They bought U.S. Treasury bonds, which supported U.S. fiscal deficit
One explanation is that higher interest rates in the United States are attracting Japanese investors
As a result of the coordination of the United States' international policy, the long-term interest rate gap between the United States and Japan remained around 3% in the years after 1985, which attracted Japanese funds to flow from low-interest Japan to relatively high-interest United States to obtain higher returns
But this explanation is unconvincing, because the gains from relatively high interest rates in the United States will be swallowed up by the depreciation of the US dollar.
Another reasonable explanation is Japan's efforts to support the US dollar
After the Plaza Accord in the fall of 1985, despite the sharp depreciation of the US dollar, the U.S. trade deficit continued to expand, reaching $155 billion in 1986 and setting a record of $170 billion in 1987.
To maintain the balance of payments in the United States, foreign capital inflows must be made up for the current account deficit with the surplus of capital accounts.
Without the inflow of foreign capital, the US dollar will depreciate significantly, and the current account deficit is compressed through the depreciation of the US dollar to maintain balance of payments.
From two perspectives, Japan does not want the US dollar to depreciate.
One is that Japanese investors and governments have huge dollar assets, and the depreciation of the dollar will increase the loss of these dollar assets.
The second is to avoid hitting Japan's exports due to the appreciation of the yen
By the 1980s, Japanese manufacturing companies had become highly dependent on exports to the United States, and the appreciation of the Japanese yen would curb the export of Japanese products.
Therefore, for the sake of Japan's interests, Japan must provide funds to the United States to maintain the value of the US dollar
Japan's Tripitaka Province (Japan Ministry of Finance) has made a lot of efforts to support the US dollar
It is said that in recent years, whenever the US long-term Treasury bond is being tendered externally, Japanese institutional investors will receive calls from officials from Tripitaka Province.
On the surface, they understand the intention or action of Japanese institutional investors to subscribe to U.S. Treasury bonds, but these officials often inform other companies of purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds.
In this way, Japanese institutional investors will naturally not remain silent. Many Japanese institutional investors often complain after suffering losses that they have to take actions that cater to the intentions of the authorities.
hehe!
Li Yun smiled and saw that the atmosphere in the room was very serious. Everyone listened to his analysis carefully. In order to make the tension in the link, Li Yun continued to say that there was a story: In March 1988, when President Reagan's term expired, the United States was carrying out a new presidential election.
During this period, rumors emerged in the US bond market that Japanese institutional investors will sell their dollar bonds when they check in the fiscal year.
This rumor has triggered turmoil in the U.S. Treasury bonds. In order to stabilize the confidence of investors in the U.S. Treasury market, Japan's Tatsuma Province quickly asked the Japanese life insurance company to issue a statement: Even after April, it is not planned to sell US dollar bonds, but investors are still worried about the promises of Japanese companies.
Therefore, relevant officials from the Tripitaka Province personally lobbyed for the market, emphasizing that the intention of the Tripitaka Province was behind the statement of the Japanese insurance company.
The Japanese central bank also said: 90% of Japan's foreign exchange reserves operate in the US dollar. The meaning is obvious. The Japanese government has shown investors in the US Treasury market that the stability of the US Treasury market is related to Japan's interests, and Japanese institutional investors will not ignore national interests.
Things have evolved to this point, and Japan has become increasingly trapped in the control of the US dollar
Throughout the 1980s, Japan has been buying large quantities of US Treasury bonds and injecting capital into the United States.
Before 1985, it was tempted by profit and could not resist the temptation of high returns contained in the US high interest rates and strong US dollar.
After the Plaza Agreement in 1985, it was a helpless move. In order to protect Japan's huge dollar assets from the losses caused by the depreciation of the US dollar, it was only possible to continue to purchase US Treasury bonds to support the US dollar.
As long as the US's huge trade deficit does not end, Japan must continue to export capital to the United States to maintain the US's balance of payments.
If capital flows into the United States is cut off, it may trigger a plunge in the US dollar.
If the US dollar plummets, Japan's huge dollar assets will further shrink significantly
Therefore, apart from constantly buying US Treasury bonds and injecting capital into the United States, Japan has no way out.
This is the real reason why Japanese institutional investment is constantly increasing US dollar assets on a large scale in the face of the continuous decline of the US dollar.
Everyone is a master in finance. I believe everyone knows this information, but for the next specific operating policy, I still have to continue talking. Li Yun smiled and continued
In 1987, facing the continuous and rapid decline of the US dollar, the seven major industrial governments could no longer sit still and hoped to take joint measures to stop the decline of the US dollar and stabilize the dollar value.
So government officials held a consultation meeting in Paris. The result of the meeting was to reach the Louvre Agreement (LuvreAccrd). The main spirit of the agreement was: 1. The seven industrial countries should work together to stabilize the exchange rate; 2. The seven industrial countries established a joint consultation mechanism to coordinate the macroeconomic policies of each country.
The Japanese government made the best efforts to stabilize the US dollar. In February 1987, the interest rate was cut alone, lowering Japan's interest rate to an ultra-low level of 25%, and maintained until May 1989, which lasted for two years and three months. It hoped to stabilize the dollar value by expanding the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan.
The United States raised interest rates three times in a row during this period. In September 1987, Alan Greenspan replaced Paul Volker as chairman of the Federal Reserve, and he raised the official U.S. interest rate to 55%6%.
The policy of expanding the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan has temporarily worked. During 1987, the US dollar rebounded steadily, rising from the lowest point of 1 US dollar to 120 yen in 1987 to 1 US dollar to 160 yen in early 1990.
Japan finally lived a good life for a while
As the saying goes, blessings are hidden. Japan's ultra-low interest rate policy has brought fatal hidden dangers to the future Japanese economy. The ultra-low interest rate policy has led to the Japanese stock and real estate bubble. Now they are tasting the bitter fruits they have created. We are just trying to speed up their eating speed.
October 19, 1987 is the Black Monday of the US stock market. On this day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 500 points, a drop of up to 20%, and the shock wave immediately spread to the whole world.
From the perspective of economic fundamentals, the fundamental reason for the plunge of US stocks can be said to be caused by the long-term current account deficit accumulated by the United States.
In 1987, the U.S. trade deficit reached a record $170 billion, and the huge trade deficit required continuous introduction of capital from abroad. If foreign capital inflows are not guaranteed due to emergencies, it will trigger a financial crisis.
Black Monday in October 1987 broke out against this background
In September 1987, the United States raised its official interest rate
At the same time, the Federal Republic of Germany also raised interest rates with the United States. The Federal Republic of Germany's move was immediately severely criticized by then US Treasury Secretary Baker. Baker believed that Federal Republic of Germany's actions violated international coordination policies and said that this would not ensure the stability of the US dollar.
Baker's speech triggered panic in the securities market, and investors began to short in the stock market and stock futures market, triggering the stock market crash on October 19
Faced with the collapse of Wall Street stock market last night and the dollar depreciated sharply, Japanese financial policy authorities immediately responded: the government supports the market and promotes the stability of the US stock market by stabilizing the Japanese stock market.
To this end, officials from the government authorities of Japan's finance, securities and insurance expressed their intention to immediately buy stocks to protect the market by buying stocks on a large scale. The four major securities companies immediately bought a large amount after the opening of the Japanese stock market the next day. Although they did not block the tide of selling, they greatly alleviated the decline of the Nikkei 225 index.
Compared with the stock markets in the United States, Britain, France and Germany, Japan's stock market has the least decline
In order to quickly recover from the blow of Black Monday, the province of Tripitaka relaxed policies to allow various corporate trust funds to enter the market to buy and sell stocks. These rescue policies prompted the Japanese stock market to quickly emerge from the crisis and continue to rise.
The good performance of the Japanese stock market has stabilized the confidence of American investors. As long as Japan is fine, the United States will be saved.
During the Black Monday emergency response, Japan's Tripitaka Province showed its decisive and decisive approach, which deeply left Japan's extreme attention to the US dollar in the impression of the whole world
Japan's approach is equivalent to informing the world that, except for continuing to support the US dollar, Japan does not have its own monetary policy.
In the second half of the 1980s, due to the particularly prosperous stock market, Japanese companies raised a large amount of low-cost funds through issuing stocks
In the first half of the 1980s, the average annual fundraising amount of Japanese manufacturing industry through issuing stocks was 800 billion yen. By the second half of the 1980s, the amount of stock financing increased year by year, reaching 500 billion yen in 1989.
At the same time, the issuance of corporate bonds is also increasing. Most of these bonds are issued in convertible bonds, or the financing cost of bonds is very low through the accompanying warrants.
During the bull market of the stock market, issuing convertible bonds or bonds with warrants can greatly reduce financing costs
Due to the low cost of securities financing, Japanese manufacturing companies obviously preferred to finance through the securities market in the 1980s.
From this perspective, the long-term bear market in the Japanese stock market is beneficial to improving the competitiveness of American companies.
The United States is very dissatisfied with the irrational rise of Japanese stocks in the second half of the 1980s. The continuous rise of Japanese stocks for four consecutive years has made the cost of domestic and international securities financing for Japanese companies very low.
In the fall of 1989, in order to resolve the long-term unbalanced trade between the two countries, the United States and Japan held consultations on the economic structure of the United States and Japan at the suggestion of President Bush.
Faced with the rising Japanese stock market, the United States strongly criticized the long-standing closed trading of the Japanese stock market and the mutual holding of companies within corporate groups or in the same industry in 1990, requiring Japanese companies to change their mutual holdings and make specific requirements to Japan: (1) Reduce the Japanese bank shareholding standard from 5% to 2%; (2) Revoke the restrictions on comprehensive trading companies not to hold shares in manufacturing enterprises; (3) Strengthen the restrictions on subsidiaries to hold shares in parent companies.
This move by the US government hides infinite murderous intent, pointing to the source of long-term growth in the Japanese stock market
The mutual holdings of each company are the main feature of the Japanese stock market and one of the reasons for maintaining the long-term rise of Japanese stocks.
If Japan adopts the US demand to abandon the practice of holding shares of enterprises with each other, it will increase the number of stocks entering the market and the stock price will fall sharply, and the price will drop sharply as a result.
In Japan, stocks held by companies are generally held for a long time and will not be easily sold due to the rise and fall of stock prices. Therefore, stocks held by companies are generally not listed and circulated.
In particular, the requirement for Japanese banks to reduce their holdings of corporate stocks is very sinister
In Japan, banks hold a large amount of stocks, and once they are held for a long time, they will not be sold easily
After a long bull market, the profits of the stocks held by banks are very huge. Once the bank sells its stocks, the Japanese stock market will inevitably collapse.
This requirement from the United States is enough to lead to a sharp decline in the Japanese stock market
In the first half of 1990, these demands from the United States frequently appeared on the front pages of major Japanese economic media, bringing pressure to the Japanese stock market.
The information released by the United States through the meeting on economic structure issues in the United States made Japanese investors understand that the United States did not want the Japanese stock market to remain high for a long time, and investors' confidence in holding shares began to shake. Some investors who are keen on Japan and the United States began to sell stocks, and the stock market fell, and then turned into a panic escape. Now the Japanese stock market is in a plunge. Although there is a government protecting the market, I believe that the entry of international financial institutions will be impacted by the big players around the world. Even if the Japanese government has more foreign exchange reserves, it cannot withstand so much funds!
In 1989, Japan's Tokyo securities market was still immersed in the creditor's market, and the stock price continued to rise.
In May 1989, Japan began to implement a tight monetary policy, but the Nikkei 225 index continued to rise without any response.
However, after analysis, I think that the rise of the Nikkei index in the second half of the year is suspected of being operated by others
Because during this period, the rising stocks were only a few constituent stocks of the Nikkei 225 index, and most stocks began to show signs of fatigue during this period.
Reliable information shows that after Japan began to implement monetary tightening policies in 1989, experienced American institutional investors continued to buy constituent stocks that had a great impact on the Nikkei 225 index. By pushing the rise of a few constituent stocks, the Nikkei 225 index maintained its upward trend.
At the same time, the Nikkei 225 index futures market has sold a lot of short Nikkei 225 index futures
After accumulating enough selling positions in the Nikkei 225 index futures market, a large number of constituent stocks that have a great impact on the Nikkei 225 index have begun to sell, driving the Nikkei 225 index to fall rapidly
At the same time, the Nikkei 225 index futures market sold a lot of short selling, causing the Nikkei 225 index futures to fall rapidly
In this way, the stock market and the stock index futures market push each other, causing panic in the stock market and causing the two markets to continue to fall
Without external destructive shocks, Japan might have gradually achieved a soft landing with a eased tightening, but Japan did not expect that this was a financial strangle that international bankers fought undeclaredly.
Americans use a lot of cash to buy it. The Japanese believe that the possibility of a plunge in the Japanese stock market is impossible. Both sides bet on the direction of the Nikkei index. If the index falls, Americans make money, Japanese lose money. If the index rises, the situation is just the opposite.
At the end of 1989, the Japanese stock market reached its historical peak, the Nikkei index reached 38,915 points, and a large number of short-selling options finally began to show their strength.
Goldman Sachs bought stock index options from Japan's insurance industry were resold to the Kingdom of Denmark, which sold them to the buyers of warrants and promised to pay the proceeds to the owners of the Nikkei put warrants when the Nikkei index fell.
The warrant immediately sold well in the United States, and a large number of American investment banks followed suit, and the Japanese stock market could no longer bear it.
The unstoppable plunge is like an unexpected storm hitting people. The dream of becoming a wealthy overnight turns into a nightmare abyss, and panic covers the hearts of investors.
It seems that the American Tiger Fund is shorting in the Japanese market now, and there are still many hedge funds waiting and watching, and they may enter the market to operate at any time. Our goal is to divide a small piece of cake like Japan. Of course, due to our limited funds, we need to adopt a more flexible policy. In view of the current situation, I made some analysis and felt that we should operate in this way.
first,……
then,……
at last,……
I believe that as long as everyone implements this plan, they will definitely achieve unexpected results. Of course, our plan is a bit off-the-scene and not so open, but if everything can be done according to the plan, I believe that the returns are also very generous, and the company's assets can definitely increase dozens of times within a year.
hey-hey!
Since it is such a great plan, how can you not have a good name?
Therefore, after careful consideration, I officially named this investment plan: Miracle Securities' first super lewd plan. What do you think?
Ha ha ha ha!
Hahahaha The serious conference room burst into laughter because of the last plan's name, which relieved everyone's mood that was shocked by Li Yun's huge plan. However, now everyone's eyes have changed when they see Li Yun, and they are no longer the artificial nouveau riche when they meet on the first day.
People like Gongzi Ge, just by not reading any manuscripts, you can see that this young boss is definitely talented and knowledgeable about Japan's financial market and the United States' attitude towards Japan over the years.
Wei Dongming's vision has changed now. Now his eyes seem to be much brighter than two days ago. He thought to himself: This boss is really capable. He has been studying the Japanese stock market for a long time. Of course, he is very familiar with this situation. He just doesn't have a large amount of funds and cannot enter the market. It seems that the boss has at least 2 billion Hong Kong dollars in his hand. If he can use about 3 billion US dollars under the 1:10 margin system, he can also use about 3 billion US dollars, which is a considerable amount of funds. It would be great if he could host this trading.
Thinking of this, Wei Dongming began to stare at Li Yun with a hot look, waiting for him to announce the appointment plan for specific personnel.
At the beginning, I was not strong enough. I believe that as my cultivation level increases, I will be fine to summon some good players and destroy a small Black Tiger Gang.
Zhao Yaru was completely unaware of what happened that night. She just felt that Li Yun let herself fly to the sky three times, and then fell deeply in the ocean of desire. She didn't know that a shocking bloody incident occurred ten meters away from her. It was not until Chang Kun went to work in their company with a pseudonym Xiao Kun. Li Yun found time to give her a brief introduction. After all, she had not seen the bloody scene at that time, and the woman was not afraid of anything. She just repeatedly told them to be careful.
It was soon Monday, and their plan to enter the Japanese stock market officially began to be implemented. After the money-making action in the Hong Kong stock market some time ago, although Li Yun spent a lot of money to buy medicinal materials, antiques, luxury cars, and villas, he still had 200 million yuan in the stock market at that time. Although he did not do it specifically for the time, all the long orders he bought at that time have now risen by more than 600 points, and 200 million yuan has become more than one billion yuan. So with the original funds in his hands, there are still 2 billion Hong Kong dollars to use.
Several traders and investment manager Wei Dongming called for a meeting in the conference room, and the rest collected and sorted out the information needed by the company, whether it was from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, or even from the United States and Britain. Anyone who found it useful would collect and sort it out. Li Yun expressed his intention to enter the Japanese stock market to several main characters in the conference room, and used various analysis to demonstrate his views on entering the Japanese stock market.
In front of the spacious conference room, Li Yun slowly said in his tempting voice that Japan's financial liberalization began in the mid-1970s, but the speed was very slow
Under pressure from the United States, by 1980, the reform of financial liberalization began to accelerate. In December 1980, the Japanese government revised the Foreign Exchange Act. The old Foreign Exchange Act was formulated in the 1950s when Japan's international payments supported the continued deficit. It implemented a quota system for foreign exchange, and the government implemented very strict controls on the use of foreign exchange.
The revised new Foreign Exchange Law allows Japanese residents to liberalize foreign currency deposits and liberalize foreign currency loans, and in principle allows free foreign exchange transactions.
The revised Foreign Exchange Act allows Japanese funds to invest overseas legally
However, the United States believes that the pace of reform of Japan's financial liberalization and internationalization is too slow. In order to accelerate the internationalization of Japan's financial, President Reagan personally took action in the fall of 1983 and brought a group of financial experts to Japan, urging the Japanese government to step up the reform of financial liberalization and internationalization.
At that time, Japanese Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone and President Reagan had a very good personal relationship. He boasted to the public many times that he and Reagan were close friends who called each other, Luo and Kang.
The Japanese government attaches great importance to the US financial reform proposal and has specially established a Japanese-US yen and US dollar committee as the agency for negotiations between the Japanese Tripitaka Province and the US Treasury Department.
After many consultations and discussions, the two sides quickly made substantial progress.
In 1984, the Japanese Province of Tripitaka published the report "The Current Situation and Prospects on Financial Liberalization and the Internationalization of the Japanese Yen", which proposed to relax or abolish business restrictions on financial institutions such as banks, insurance companies and securities companies, allow free exchange of the Japanese Yen, allow enterprises and investors to conduct free foreign exchange futures trading, allow foreign banks to enter Japan, implement the internationalization strategy of the Japanese Yen, etc.
The speed of the release of the report was so fast that it was beyond the expectations of many Japanese experts. Judging from past experience, many of the contents and measures of the report were difficult to issue without extensive discussion and review for two or three years.
Moreover, the recommendations and measures of the report were implemented quickly and were accepted very smoothly by relevant parties in the financial community and market.
As Japan has rapidly implemented reforms to financial liberalization and internationalization since 1980, Japanese institutional and individual investors with large amounts of funds have the opportunity to invest in the US securities market
In September 1985, US Treasury Secretary James Baker, Japanese Treasury Secretary Tomoto Takeshita, former German Treasury Secretary Gerhard Stltenberg, French Treasury Secretary Pierre Beregvy, British Treasury Secretary Nigel Lawsn Xue and other five developed industrial countries, including Treasury Secretary Nigel Lawsn, and five central banks of five countries held a meeting at the Plaza Htel New York City to reach a joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, so that the US dollar will be lowered in an orderly manner against major currencies to resolve the huge US trade deficit.
This is the famous PlazaAccrd. After the signing of the PlazaAccrd, the five countries jointly intervened in the foreign exchange market. The countries began to sell the US dollar, which then formed a selling frenzy among market investors, resulting in a significant depreciation of the US dollar.
In September 1985, the US dollar fluctuated around 1 US dollar to 250 yen. After the agreement was signed, it quickly fell to around 200 yen in less than 3 months, a drop of 20%.
It is said that at the square meeting, then Japanese Treasury Secretary Takeshita said that Japan was willing to assist the United States in using market intervention to lower the dollar exchange rate, and even said: Depreciation by 20% OK After that, the US government authorities led by US Treasury Secretary Baker and experts represented by Ephrid Bergsten (the director of the American Institute of International Economics at the time) continued to intervene verbally in the dollar, saying that the exchange rate level of the US dollar was still relatively high at that time and there was room for decline.
The dollar continues to fall sharply against the yen under the hint of the tough attitude of the US government
At the end of 1986, 1 US dollar against 152 yen, and in 1987, the lowest reached 1 US dollar against 120 yen. In less than three years, the US dollar depreciated by 50%, which means that the yen appreciated twice against the US dollar.
Since 1980, Japan's foreign capital investment has increased sharply. According to statistics from the Bank of Japan, in 1980, Japan's long-term foreign direct investment amounted to US$19.6 billion and long-term foreign securities investment amounted to US$21.4 billion in 1980.
By 1985, Japan's long-term foreign direct investment amounted to US$44 billion, an increase of 12,449% compared with 1980; the investment in foreign long-term securities soared to US$145.7 billion, an increase of 58,084% compared with 1980.
In 1985, Japan's total foreign net assets were US$129.8 billion, an increase of 102,870% from US$11.5 billion in 1980.
These data show that since 1980, Japan has indeed made a lot of money through foreign trade, but most of the money it earned has been invested overseas and mainly invested in the securities market
Among them, long-term foreign securities investment is mainly concentrated in the United States, and long-term government bonds.
During 1981, 1985, Japan's current income and expenditure surplus was approximately US$120 billion, with most of the trade surplus coming from the United States.
But at the same time, Japanese companies have used most of this money to purchase US Treasury bonds during this period
By 1985, Japan had replaced the United States as the world's largest creditor country. Japan had huge assets in the United States, which were mainly held in the form of US dollars and most of them were used to purchase US Treasury bonds. Japan was the largest creditor of the United States.
After the Plaza Agreement in 1985, with the sharp depreciation of the US dollar and the sharp appreciation of the yen, the US dollar assets held by Japan depreciated significantly.
During this period of September 1985, at the end of 1987, the US dollar fell from 1 dollar to 250 yen to 1 dollar against 121 yen, and the US dollar depreciated by 50% against yen.
This means that the US dollar assets held by the Japanese depreciated by 50%
According to statistics from Japanese institutions, during 1986 and 1990, the cumulative exchange rate loss of Japanese foreign net assets caused by the Plaza Agreement was about 15 trillion yen
Many Japanese institutional and individual investors, including Japanese life insurance companies, have suffered heavy losses. Japanese export companies have also invested the US dollar they earned in exports in U.S. Treasury bonds in the era of appreciation of the US dollar. They also suffered huge losses.
Therefore, when many Japanese people reflected on this historical period, they believed that the plunge in the US dollar was due to the huge amount of dollars accumulated by Japan.
After the Plaza Agreement in 1985, the sharp depreciation of the US dollar caused huge exchange losses in US dollar assets held by Japanese institutional investors, which made the United States feel a sense of crisis.
If Japanese investors' confidence shakes and sell US Treasury bonds on a large scale to reduce losses, this will cause a chain reaction in the US financial market.
First, it caused the US Treasury market to collapse, which led to turmoil in the US stock market. International capital will also withdraw from the US to avoid risks.
Without the continuous flow of overseas capital into the United States, the balance of payments in the United States is difficult to maintain.
Due to the sharp decline in the Treasury bond market, it is difficult for the U.S. Treasury bonds to be issued, and the fiscal deficit problem cannot be solved
In order to allow international capital to continue to flow into the United States, US Treasury Secretary Baker proposed international policy coordination recommendations, which require the maintenance of the interest rate spread between the United States, Japan and the Federal Republic of Germany, so that the interest rate in the United States is always higher than that in Japan and Germany.
If the United States lowers interest rates, Japan and Germany must also lower interest rates, because only in this way can the interest rate difference between the three countries remain unchanged
The relatively high interest rate in the United States makes U.S. Treasury bonds still have investment value
Judging from the situation in the United States at that time, the risk of investing in the United States was very high, such as the huge deficit of current account for many years, the increase in external net debt, the depreciation of the US dollar, etc. Investors simply couldn't find a reason to invest in the United States.
Therefore, maintaining relatively high levels of US interest rates through international policy coordination is the main way for the United States to attract overseas capital inflows
In the following years of 1985, Japan, in accordance with the requirements of the United States' international coordination, kept the long-term interest rate gap between the United States and Japan at all times above 3%, which led to a large difference in the yields of the U.S. and Japan. Compared with the yields of Japanese government bonds, the high yields of the U.S. long-term government bonds strongly attracted Japanese investors
In February 1986, the United States decided to lower the official interest rate for two purposes: one is to reduce the debts of the huge debtor countries in South America, which are closely related to the United States, and the other is to stimulate the recession of the economy.
Before the interest rate cut, Fed Chairman Volker first negotiated with Japan and the Federal Republic of Germany, hoping that Deutsche Federal Bank and Japan Bank would cut interest rates at the same time
Volker's reason is simple: the three countries can maintain the stability of the US dollar at the same time
Because the United States cuts interest rates and Japan and the Federal Republic of Germany maintain interest rates unchanged will lead to a depreciation of the US dollar, which will damage the interests of these two countries in the United States.
Since Japan has huge US dollar assets and is most afraid of the depreciation of the US dollar, Japan always faithfully follows the requirements of the United States. Japan's official interest rates are like the shadow of US interest rates. The United States cuts interest rates, and Japan also cuts interest rates.
The United States uses high interest rates and strong dollar strategies to lure Japanese capital to invest in US Treasury bonds on a large scale, thus allowing Japan to own high dollar assets
After completing this step, the interests of the United States are Japan's interests, and Japan is forced to take the initiative to defend the US dollar.
Logically speaking, the task of supporting the US dollar is the American business, but since Japan already has huge US dollar assets, stabilizing the US dollar value is to protect the US dollar assets owned by Japan.
After a pause and drinking, Li Yun continued, we can analyze Japan's dilemma in this way: Japan is a super buyer of the US Treasury bond market. If Japan sells US Treasury bonds, it will cause a panic decline in the Treasury bond market. The decline in Treasury bond prices will lead to an increase in losses in Japan's Treasury bond holdings.
This is the first loss
Japan's selling of government bonds will also cause the US dollar to depreciate
Because investors in the foreign exchange market expect that after Japan sells its treasury bonds, it will convert the US dollar into yen, which will increase the selling pressure of the US dollar and cause the US dollar to fall.
The dollar depreciation is the second loss that Japan needs to foresee
Therefore, from the perspective of game analysis, if Japan sells US Treasury bonds on a large scale, both the United States and Japan will suffer huge losses. If the United States and Japan cooperate and coordinate, both sides will benefit.
Therefore, only by helping the United States stabilize the US dollar can Japan avoid losses
In a word, the United States has controlled Japan in finance. In addition to Japanese investors having huge amounts of US dollar assets, the Japanese government also has huge US dollar assets.
After the Plaza Agreement in 1985, in the face of the continued sharp appreciation of the yen, the Japanese government often interfered in the foreign exchange market, and prevented the appreciation of the yen by buying US dollars and selling the yen.
As a result, the Japanese government has more and more foreign exchange reserves, becoming the world's largest foreign exchange reserve country
According to the Japanese Central Bank itself, 90% of Japan's foreign exchange reserves operate in US dollars, mainly buying US Treasury bonds
Therefore, Japan must support the US dollar and continue to buy US Treasury bonds to support the US dollar
After the Plaza Agreement, Japanese institutional investors continued to buy US Treasury bonds on a large scale
From 1986 to 1989, Japan purchased US Treasury bonds in more than 1985
From the perspective of pure investment, this investment behavior of Japanese institutional investors is incomprehensible.
Due to the sharp depreciation of the US dollar, Japanese institutional investors have suffered heavy losses. Why do Japanese people still purchase large quantities of US Treasury bonds?
Peter Drucker, a famous American economist, was also puzzled by this phenomenon. He wrote in his book "New Reality" that the flow of capital and investment after the US dollar to the Japanese yen was unexpected in the fall of 1985. Although the main creditors of the United States continued to invest their funds in the United States despite seeing that the value of their huge dollar assets had been reduced by half.
They bought U.S. Treasury bonds, which supported U.S. fiscal deficit
One explanation is that higher interest rates in the United States are attracting Japanese investors
As a result of the coordination of the United States' international policy, the long-term interest rate gap between the United States and Japan remained around 3% in the years after 1985, which attracted Japanese funds to flow from low-interest Japan to relatively high-interest United States to obtain higher returns
But this explanation is unconvincing, because the gains from relatively high interest rates in the United States will be swallowed up by the depreciation of the US dollar.
Another reasonable explanation is Japan's efforts to support the US dollar
After the Plaza Accord in the fall of 1985, despite the sharp depreciation of the US dollar, the U.S. trade deficit continued to expand, reaching $155 billion in 1986 and setting a record of $170 billion in 1987.
To maintain the balance of payments in the United States, foreign capital inflows must be made up for the current account deficit with the surplus of capital accounts.
Without the inflow of foreign capital, the US dollar will depreciate significantly, and the current account deficit is compressed through the depreciation of the US dollar to maintain balance of payments.
From two perspectives, Japan does not want the US dollar to depreciate.
One is that Japanese investors and governments have huge dollar assets, and the depreciation of the dollar will increase the loss of these dollar assets.
The second is to avoid hitting Japan's exports due to the appreciation of the yen
By the 1980s, Japanese manufacturing companies had become highly dependent on exports to the United States, and the appreciation of the Japanese yen would curb the export of Japanese products.
Therefore, for the sake of Japan's interests, Japan must provide funds to the United States to maintain the value of the US dollar
Japan's Tripitaka Province (Japan Ministry of Finance) has made a lot of efforts to support the US dollar
It is said that in recent years, whenever the US long-term Treasury bond is being tendered externally, Japanese institutional investors will receive calls from officials from Tripitaka Province.
On the surface, they understand the intention or action of Japanese institutional investors to subscribe to U.S. Treasury bonds, but these officials often inform other companies of purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds.
In this way, Japanese institutional investors will naturally not remain silent. Many Japanese institutional investors often complain after suffering losses that they have to take actions that cater to the intentions of the authorities.
hehe!
Li Yun smiled and saw that the atmosphere in the room was very serious. Everyone listened to his analysis carefully. In order to make the tension in the link, Li Yun continued to say that there was a story: In March 1988, when President Reagan's term expired, the United States was carrying out a new presidential election.
During this period, rumors emerged in the US bond market that Japanese institutional investors will sell their dollar bonds when they check in the fiscal year.
This rumor has triggered turmoil in the U.S. Treasury bonds. In order to stabilize the confidence of investors in the U.S. Treasury market, Japan's Tatsuma Province quickly asked the Japanese life insurance company to issue a statement: Even after April, it is not planned to sell US dollar bonds, but investors are still worried about the promises of Japanese companies.
Therefore, relevant officials from the Tripitaka Province personally lobbyed for the market, emphasizing that the intention of the Tripitaka Province was behind the statement of the Japanese insurance company.
The Japanese central bank also said: 90% of Japan's foreign exchange reserves operate in the US dollar. The meaning is obvious. The Japanese government has shown investors in the US Treasury market that the stability of the US Treasury market is related to Japan's interests, and Japanese institutional investors will not ignore national interests.
Things have evolved to this point, and Japan has become increasingly trapped in the control of the US dollar
Throughout the 1980s, Japan has been buying large quantities of US Treasury bonds and injecting capital into the United States.
Before 1985, it was tempted by profit and could not resist the temptation of high returns contained in the US high interest rates and strong US dollar.
After the Plaza Agreement in 1985, it was a helpless move. In order to protect Japan's huge dollar assets from the losses caused by the depreciation of the US dollar, it was only possible to continue to purchase US Treasury bonds to support the US dollar.
As long as the US's huge trade deficit does not end, Japan must continue to export capital to the United States to maintain the US's balance of payments.
If capital flows into the United States is cut off, it may trigger a plunge in the US dollar.
If the US dollar plummets, Japan's huge dollar assets will further shrink significantly
Therefore, apart from constantly buying US Treasury bonds and injecting capital into the United States, Japan has no way out.
This is the real reason why Japanese institutional investment is constantly increasing US dollar assets on a large scale in the face of the continuous decline of the US dollar.
Everyone is a master in finance. I believe everyone knows this information, but for the next specific operating policy, I still have to continue talking. Li Yun smiled and continued
In 1987, facing the continuous and rapid decline of the US dollar, the seven major industrial governments could no longer sit still and hoped to take joint measures to stop the decline of the US dollar and stabilize the dollar value.
So government officials held a consultation meeting in Paris. The result of the meeting was to reach the Louvre Agreement (LuvreAccrd). The main spirit of the agreement was: 1. The seven industrial countries should work together to stabilize the exchange rate; 2. The seven industrial countries established a joint consultation mechanism to coordinate the macroeconomic policies of each country.
The Japanese government made the best efforts to stabilize the US dollar. In February 1987, the interest rate was cut alone, lowering Japan's interest rate to an ultra-low level of 25%, and maintained until May 1989, which lasted for two years and three months. It hoped to stabilize the dollar value by expanding the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan.
The United States raised interest rates three times in a row during this period. In September 1987, Alan Greenspan replaced Paul Volker as chairman of the Federal Reserve, and he raised the official U.S. interest rate to 55%6%.
The policy of expanding the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan has temporarily worked. During 1987, the US dollar rebounded steadily, rising from the lowest point of 1 US dollar to 120 yen in 1987 to 1 US dollar to 160 yen in early 1990.
Japan finally lived a good life for a while
As the saying goes, blessings are hidden. Japan's ultra-low interest rate policy has brought fatal hidden dangers to the future Japanese economy. The ultra-low interest rate policy has led to the Japanese stock and real estate bubble. Now they are tasting the bitter fruits they have created. We are just trying to speed up their eating speed.
October 19, 1987 is the Black Monday of the US stock market. On this day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 500 points, a drop of up to 20%, and the shock wave immediately spread to the whole world.
From the perspective of economic fundamentals, the fundamental reason for the plunge of US stocks can be said to be caused by the long-term current account deficit accumulated by the United States.
In 1987, the U.S. trade deficit reached a record $170 billion, and the huge trade deficit required continuous introduction of capital from abroad. If foreign capital inflows are not guaranteed due to emergencies, it will trigger a financial crisis.
Black Monday in October 1987 broke out against this background
In September 1987, the United States raised its official interest rate
At the same time, the Federal Republic of Germany also raised interest rates with the United States. The Federal Republic of Germany's move was immediately severely criticized by then US Treasury Secretary Baker. Baker believed that Federal Republic of Germany's actions violated international coordination policies and said that this would not ensure the stability of the US dollar.
Baker's speech triggered panic in the securities market, and investors began to short in the stock market and stock futures market, triggering the stock market crash on October 19
Faced with the collapse of Wall Street stock market last night and the dollar depreciated sharply, Japanese financial policy authorities immediately responded: the government supports the market and promotes the stability of the US stock market by stabilizing the Japanese stock market.
To this end, officials from the government authorities of Japan's finance, securities and insurance expressed their intention to immediately buy stocks to protect the market by buying stocks on a large scale. The four major securities companies immediately bought a large amount after the opening of the Japanese stock market the next day. Although they did not block the tide of selling, they greatly alleviated the decline of the Nikkei 225 index.
Compared with the stock markets in the United States, Britain, France and Germany, Japan's stock market has the least decline
In order to quickly recover from the blow of Black Monday, the province of Tripitaka relaxed policies to allow various corporate trust funds to enter the market to buy and sell stocks. These rescue policies prompted the Japanese stock market to quickly emerge from the crisis and continue to rise.
The good performance of the Japanese stock market has stabilized the confidence of American investors. As long as Japan is fine, the United States will be saved.
During the Black Monday emergency response, Japan's Tripitaka Province showed its decisive and decisive approach, which deeply left Japan's extreme attention to the US dollar in the impression of the whole world
Japan's approach is equivalent to informing the world that, except for continuing to support the US dollar, Japan does not have its own monetary policy.
In the second half of the 1980s, due to the particularly prosperous stock market, Japanese companies raised a large amount of low-cost funds through issuing stocks
In the first half of the 1980s, the average annual fundraising amount of Japanese manufacturing industry through issuing stocks was 800 billion yen. By the second half of the 1980s, the amount of stock financing increased year by year, reaching 500 billion yen in 1989.
At the same time, the issuance of corporate bonds is also increasing. Most of these bonds are issued in convertible bonds, or the financing cost of bonds is very low through the accompanying warrants.
During the bull market of the stock market, issuing convertible bonds or bonds with warrants can greatly reduce financing costs
Due to the low cost of securities financing, Japanese manufacturing companies obviously preferred to finance through the securities market in the 1980s.
From this perspective, the long-term bear market in the Japanese stock market is beneficial to improving the competitiveness of American companies.
The United States is very dissatisfied with the irrational rise of Japanese stocks in the second half of the 1980s. The continuous rise of Japanese stocks for four consecutive years has made the cost of domestic and international securities financing for Japanese companies very low.
In the fall of 1989, in order to resolve the long-term unbalanced trade between the two countries, the United States and Japan held consultations on the economic structure of the United States and Japan at the suggestion of President Bush.
Faced with the rising Japanese stock market, the United States strongly criticized the long-standing closed trading of the Japanese stock market and the mutual holding of companies within corporate groups or in the same industry in 1990, requiring Japanese companies to change their mutual holdings and make specific requirements to Japan: (1) Reduce the Japanese bank shareholding standard from 5% to 2%; (2) Revoke the restrictions on comprehensive trading companies not to hold shares in manufacturing enterprises; (3) Strengthen the restrictions on subsidiaries to hold shares in parent companies.
This move by the US government hides infinite murderous intent, pointing to the source of long-term growth in the Japanese stock market
The mutual holdings of each company are the main feature of the Japanese stock market and one of the reasons for maintaining the long-term rise of Japanese stocks.
If Japan adopts the US demand to abandon the practice of holding shares of enterprises with each other, it will increase the number of stocks entering the market and the stock price will fall sharply, and the price will drop sharply as a result.
In Japan, stocks held by companies are generally held for a long time and will not be easily sold due to the rise and fall of stock prices. Therefore, stocks held by companies are generally not listed and circulated.
In particular, the requirement for Japanese banks to reduce their holdings of corporate stocks is very sinister
In Japan, banks hold a large amount of stocks, and once they are held for a long time, they will not be sold easily
After a long bull market, the profits of the stocks held by banks are very huge. Once the bank sells its stocks, the Japanese stock market will inevitably collapse.
This requirement from the United States is enough to lead to a sharp decline in the Japanese stock market
In the first half of 1990, these demands from the United States frequently appeared on the front pages of major Japanese economic media, bringing pressure to the Japanese stock market.
The information released by the United States through the meeting on economic structure issues in the United States made Japanese investors understand that the United States did not want the Japanese stock market to remain high for a long time, and investors' confidence in holding shares began to shake. Some investors who are keen on Japan and the United States began to sell stocks, and the stock market fell, and then turned into a panic escape. Now the Japanese stock market is in a plunge. Although there is a government protecting the market, I believe that the entry of international financial institutions will be impacted by the big players around the world. Even if the Japanese government has more foreign exchange reserves, it cannot withstand so much funds!
In 1989, Japan's Tokyo securities market was still immersed in the creditor's market, and the stock price continued to rise.
In May 1989, Japan began to implement a tight monetary policy, but the Nikkei 225 index continued to rise without any response.
However, after analysis, I think that the rise of the Nikkei index in the second half of the year is suspected of being operated by others
Because during this period, the rising stocks were only a few constituent stocks of the Nikkei 225 index, and most stocks began to show signs of fatigue during this period.
Reliable information shows that after Japan began to implement monetary tightening policies in 1989, experienced American institutional investors continued to buy constituent stocks that had a great impact on the Nikkei 225 index. By pushing the rise of a few constituent stocks, the Nikkei 225 index maintained its upward trend.
At the same time, the Nikkei 225 index futures market has sold a lot of short Nikkei 225 index futures
After accumulating enough selling positions in the Nikkei 225 index futures market, a large number of constituent stocks that have a great impact on the Nikkei 225 index have begun to sell, driving the Nikkei 225 index to fall rapidly
At the same time, the Nikkei 225 index futures market sold a lot of short selling, causing the Nikkei 225 index futures to fall rapidly
In this way, the stock market and the stock index futures market push each other, causing panic in the stock market and causing the two markets to continue to fall
Without external destructive shocks, Japan might have gradually achieved a soft landing with a eased tightening, but Japan did not expect that this was a financial strangle that international bankers fought undeclaredly.
Americans use a lot of cash to buy it. The Japanese believe that the possibility of a plunge in the Japanese stock market is impossible. Both sides bet on the direction of the Nikkei index. If the index falls, Americans make money, Japanese lose money. If the index rises, the situation is just the opposite.
At the end of 1989, the Japanese stock market reached its historical peak, the Nikkei index reached 38,915 points, and a large number of short-selling options finally began to show their strength.
Goldman Sachs bought stock index options from Japan's insurance industry were resold to the Kingdom of Denmark, which sold them to the buyers of warrants and promised to pay the proceeds to the owners of the Nikkei put warrants when the Nikkei index fell.
The warrant immediately sold well in the United States, and a large number of American investment banks followed suit, and the Japanese stock market could no longer bear it.
The unstoppable plunge is like an unexpected storm hitting people. The dream of becoming a wealthy overnight turns into a nightmare abyss, and panic covers the hearts of investors.
It seems that the American Tiger Fund is shorting in the Japanese market now, and there are still many hedge funds waiting and watching, and they may enter the market to operate at any time. Our goal is to divide a small piece of cake like Japan. Of course, due to our limited funds, we need to adopt a more flexible policy. In view of the current situation, I made some analysis and felt that we should operate in this way.
first,……
then,……
at last,……
I believe that as long as everyone implements this plan, they will definitely achieve unexpected results. Of course, our plan is a bit off-the-scene and not so open, but if everything can be done according to the plan, I believe that the returns are also very generous, and the company's assets can definitely increase dozens of times within a year.
hey-hey!
Since it is such a great plan, how can you not have a good name?
Therefore, after careful consideration, I officially named this investment plan: Miracle Securities' first super lewd plan. What do you think?
Ha ha ha ha!
Hahahaha The serious conference room burst into laughter because of the last plan's name, which relieved everyone's mood that was shocked by Li Yun's huge plan. However, now everyone's eyes have changed when they see Li Yun, and they are no longer the artificial nouveau riche when they meet on the first day.
People like Gongzi Ge, just by not reading any manuscripts, you can see that this young boss is definitely talented and knowledgeable about Japan's financial market and the United States' attitude towards Japan over the years.
Wei Dongming's vision has changed now. Now his eyes seem to be much brighter than two days ago. He thought to himself: This boss is really capable. He has been studying the Japanese stock market for a long time. Of course, he is very familiar with this situation. He just doesn't have a large amount of funds and cannot enter the market. It seems that the boss has at least 2 billion Hong Kong dollars in his hand. If he can use about 3 billion US dollars under the 1:10 margin system, he can also use about 3 billion US dollars, which is a considerable amount of funds. It would be great if he could host this trading.
Thinking of this, Wei Dongming began to stare at Li Yun with a hot look, waiting for him to announce the appointment plan for specific personnel.
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